There are now more than 240 Jewish settlements and 620,000 Israelis in the West Bank. Only 131 have been recognized by the Israeli government. Although more than 110 have not been recognized, they have water and electricity supply. This shows that Israel is playing the tactic of cutting sausages, in hope of slowly change the population structure of the West Bank and form an established fact. There were originally activities of various Palestinian militant organizations in the West Bank area that attacked Israel in search of a statehood. For example, in the Munich tragedy in 1972, 11 Israeli athletes died, shocking the world. However, after the 1980s, Arab countries demonstrated and were unable to support the PLO movement. The PLO was encircled and suppressed by Israel. The power struggle of various factions gradually declined, and the intensity of the attack began to decline. In 2000, the Al-Aqsa Uprising broke out in the West Bank. The IDF completed its suppression at the cost of more than 300 deaths. Arab countries gradually realized that after Egypt withdrew, it was a delusion to defeat Israel in a separate battle.
As Israel gradually consolidated its position in the West Bank and the proportion of Jews gradually increased, the liberation of Palestine became an impossible task. Countries in the Middle East are gradually giving up on the restoration of Palestine. In this Arab-Israeli agreement, Israel only “suspended” its annexation of West Bank land. At present, the only obstacle to the normalization of relations between other Arab countries and Israel is the ideological conflict. Israel has won the West Bank for so many years. Why is the UAE jumping out now? This is because they have a common enemy–Iran. Iran is rapidly rising, which goes back to the Obama era.
In 2010, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was engaged in human rights diplomacy in the Middle East, exporting revolution through Facebook, and created the “Arab Spring”. The local area is still in turmoil today. The Syrian civil war, ISIS rampant, and the immigration crisis impacted European unity. Amidst the chaos in the Middle East, the terrorist organization Islamic State has risen, and its troops are approaching Baghdad. Iran seized the opportunity to send troops to rescue Iraq and create a sphere of influence for Iran.
In 2011, the Syrian civil war broke out again. Assad, who is in power, belongs to the Alawite faction and is a branch of the Shia faction. Iran remotely controls the Lebanese Hezbollah behind the scenes and sends troops to assist the little Assad. Now that the opposition in Syria is about to be eliminated, relying on these sophisticated operations, Iran has gradually established a Shia crescent from the chaotic situation in the Middle East, starting from Lebanon in the west and Bahrain in the east, and Iran’s influence has increased unprecedentedly. In terms of religious beliefs, heresy is more unacceptable than paganism. The rise of Shiites and Sunni countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates naturally cannot sit by, so they choose to put aside ideological disputes and improve relations with Israel.
How to communicate with Israel? Only United States can help to mediate. The predecessor Obama is actually relatively less enthusiastic, mainly because he hopes to reach an Iran nuclear agreement. The US presidents have always hanged Israel, as long as Israel is not dead, but Trump really takes Israel seriously, perhaps because there are too many Jews around him. For example, the son-in-law Kushner is a Jew, and the daughter Ivanka also converted to Judaism after her marriage. In fact, the policy maker is a very important research object in international relations, because No matter how many international relations tools, theories, institutions, departments, experts, and civil servants you have, they will not have much more influence than the decision-makers’ will. The most typical action is that Trump directly moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. In addition, Trump also regarded Iran as a thorn in the eye. He directly tore up the Iran nuclear agreement that Obama pushed to land. He sanctioned Iran several times during his tenure and directly assassinated the senior generals. Therefore, if Israel want to expand its international relations, he is willing to be the intermediary, allowing Arab allies and Israel to unite and deal with Iran together.
An Israeli official also said that“The plan will start with sharing information about Iran’s ballistic missiles.”, proving that the agreement is mainly aimed at Iran. In non-war situations, diplomatic negotiation is a very long process. The UAE and Israel are not in a state of war, and there is no urgency to negotiate. According to the person in charge, Kushner, it only takes about six weeks between UAE and Israel to get result. In addition, the regional power Saudi Arabia is also remaining silent about the agreement, indicating that there is already a consensus within the anti-Iranian group.
So why is the UAE the first to come out to reconcile with Israel this time? It is because that the UAE and Iran have the most direct territorial conflict. The UAE was originally a British colony. It become independent on December 1, 1971. As a result, the day before independence, on November 30, 1971, Iranian naval forces landed on the UAE’s Abu Musa Island. The casualties of the occupation were not large. Only 4 local policemen were killed, one of which was the chief of police, Hamis, he was shot dead for refusing to lower the national flag. Because his death was too symbolic, the UAE chose the date of his death as the Martyrs’ Day, with one day work off each year. The UAE has also established a memorial in the capital, Abu Dhabi, and relations between the two countries are now very tense. The main reason is the dispute over the ownership of the two islands. In addition, the UAE also hopes to use this move to consolidate its alliance with the United States. As you may know that the United States has achieved energy independence after the energy revolution. In the past, these medieval princes in the Middle East relied on energy for security and maintained an alliance with the United States. Now the United States does not rely on their energy sources, and is still engaged in strategic contraction in the Middle East, putting its main force in East Asia to contain China’s rise. This increased the anxiety of these princes and they try to strengthen relations with the United States by improving relations with Israel. The US government is already considering selling F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets to the UAE. Finally, ideologically, the UAE is not the same as other Arab countries in the Middle East. The UAE is not enthusiastic in spreading Islam because the UAE not only has oil, but also the largest city, Dubai,an international tourist destination. They hope to build economic prosperity, a strong government and secularism UAE model. Therefore, ideologically, they are the easiest country to shake hands with Israel in the entire Middle East.
Trump has indeed promoted a certain degree of peace process. After all, the existence of Israel is already a fact. Although the agreement is aimed at Iran, it still achieved a bit of consensus. But after all, the Peace Prize is a joke.